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Prices, economy, to drain gold jewelry demand

4/10/2009 3:23:07 PM

Prices, economy, to drain gold demand - Prices,economy,drain,gold,jewelry,demand

According to the GFMS' 2009 Gold Survey, the average gold price increased from $871.96 per ounce in 2008 to $908.41 per ounce in the first quarter of 2009, and could increase to a new high above the $1,000 mark.

London--Historically high gold prices and increased volatility in the market coupled with the economic downturn will have a dramatic impact on global gold jewelry demand in 2009, according to the latest Gold Survey from precious-metals consultancy GFMS Ltd.

According to the report, the average gold price increased from $695.39 per ounce in 2007 and $871.96 per ounce in 2008 to $908.41 per ounce in the first quarter of 2009.

That price could increase to a new high above the $1,000 mark, with $1,100 a "real possibility," as investors remain the principal driver of the expected next leg of the bull market, the report states.

In the medium term, however, prices could retrace from current levels: The mid to low $800s are a possible low over the rest of the year, with prices in that region most likely to be pushed up by bargain-hunting and stock replenishment, according to the report.

Ultimately, imbalances in the market suggest that sooner or later gold prices will have to retreat, but this is not likely to occur until the end of 2009 and potentially not until well into 2010 given current economic conditions, which favor gold investment.

As for supply, mine production is expected to increase by 20-30 tonnes compared with 2008 levels, with a rise in output from Asia, Australia and West Africa, the report states. Scrap has already increased substantially this year, surpassing jewelry fabrication volume, and will "almost certainly be well up year-on-year."

Looking back to 2008, gold mine production was down 2.5 percent, or 62 tonnes, compared with 2007, and scrap supply in North America was up about 10 tonnes.

Meanwhile, 2008 world gold fabrication dropped 7.3 percent, or 226 tonnes, compared with 2007, and gold jewelry fabrication dropped about 100 tonnes in India, about 50 tonnes each in Europe and the Middle East, and about 20 tonnes in North America.

For more information about the 2009 Gold Survey, visit the GFMS' Web site, GFMS.co.uk.

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