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Magazine > Market Survey > News Content

Survey: Black Friday crowds may thicken this year

11/26/2009 8:00:05 PM

Washington--Shopping levels over Black Friday weekend could rise to 134 million consumers this year, up from the 128 million shoppers who said they planned a buying spree in the three-day weekend after Thanksgiving last year, according to a preliminary shopping survey.

The survey, conducted for the National Retail Federation (NRF) by BIGresearch, indicates that 57 million people say they will definitely hit the stores over this Friday, Saturday and Sunday, while 77 million are waiting to see what retailers are planning--especially in terms of sales.

"Regardless of what we've already seen these last few weeks in terms of promotions, retailers still have a few tricks up their sleeves to excite Black Friday shoppers," NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Tracy Mullin said in a media release. "With retailers fully aware that shoppers are looking for incredible deals, Americans can expect huge sales on popular items like toys, electronics and apparel."

Meanwhile, a second survey from market research company The NPD Group, based in Port Washington, N.Y., indicates that Black Friday may be losing some of its steam, partly due to all the deals that have already been offered.

According to NPD Group's Annual Holiday Survey, 20 percent of consumers surveyed said they would begin their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 25 percent said they will do so by early December. Yet just 12 percent indicated they would get a jump-start on their shopping lists over the Thanksgiving weekend.

"This year, we are seeing the graying of Black Friday as the stores have already been using the lure of sales and door-buster deals" Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for The NPD Group, said in a media release. "While Black Friday is still an important business indicator, it is not an obvious one [this year]. There may be some panic when the rush seems lighter than past years, but based on our holiday market research that doesn't necessarily mean less business in the long-run."

Indeed, while 3 percent of consumers surveyed said they plan to finish their holiday shopping by Thanksgiving weekend, 29 percent will be making it a late shopping season and are expecting to complete their shopping lists at the last minute.

As for the NRF survey, the organization released details about consumers' Black Friday weekend shopping intentions, revealing that among those shopping this weekend, discount and department stores will be the biggest draws, with 66.3 percent and 62.4 percent of those surveyed, respectively, planning to visit those retail destinations. Forty-one percent of consumers surveyed said they will shop at electronics stores, while 36.3 percent said they will head to a clothing and clothing accessories store, and 28.8 percent planned to head to a grocery store. More than one-quarter (27.6 percent) are expected to shop online.

One in 10 shoppers are expected to get to the stores between midnight and 3 a.m., a favorite time for 18- to 34-year-olds in particular, with 18.3 percent planning to shop during those hours, the survey said. More than one quarter (28.8 percent) of respondents said they will head out between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. A slightly lower percentage of shoppers, 28.2 percent, are expected to kick off their Black Friday weekend between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m.

When it comes to what influences consumers to shop in particular stores over Thanksgiving weekend, the survey indicates that most people (43.2 percent) will base their shopping destinations on the types of items they have on their list. Close behind as influences, however, is the offering of coupons (40.6 percent), followed by advertising in newspaper circulars (38.2 percent), television ads (27.8 percent) and word of mouth (26.5 percent).

The National Retail Federation survey estimating the number of shoppers over Black Friday polled 8,692 consumers and was conducted from Nov. 3 through Nov. 10. The survey on shoppers' Black Friday shopping intentions polled 5,899 consumers and was conducted from Nov. 13 to Nov. 17.

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