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Magazine > Fortune > News Content
G-8 Starts Planning Stimulus Exit Strategies on Recovery Signs
 
      6/13/2009 3:31:00 PM

The Group of Eight nations began considering how to reverse the emergency steps they took to rescue the world economy as it shows signs of recovery.

As they delivered their most upbeat outlook since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed, G-8 finance ministers said they will start planning exit strategies for when sustainable growth returns. It’s still too soon to roll back budget deficits and bank bailouts, they said after a meeting in Lecce, Italy.

“We discussed the need to prepare appropriate strategies for unwinding the extraordinary policy measures taken to respond to the crisis once the recovery is assured,” the ministers said in a statement yesterday after two days of talks. There are “signs of stabilization,” though “the situation remains uncertain.”

Governments are under pressure to turn their attention from fighting recession to smoothing a recovery as investors worry more than $2 trillion in stimulus programs will spark inflation if left unchecked. The officials bickered over whether Europe is endangering a rebound by refusing to impose stricter health checks on individual banks.

“Early signs of improvement are encouraging, but the global economy is still operating well below potential and we still face acute challenges,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told reporters. Central bankers didn’t attend this meeting and neither interest rates nor foreign exchange were mentioned in the statement.

Inflation

Signs the worst slump since World War II is moderating are prompting central bankers and investors to warn that inflation will accelerate if governments don’t cut back. U.S. Treasury 10- year note yields last week reached 4 percent for the first time since October.

“There is a distinct shift in tone” from the G-8, said Eswar Prasad, an economist at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Still, “rising interest rates due to concerns about fiscal deficits and prospects of inflation could choke off a nascent recovery.”

The governments didn’t outline how they will tighten policy once they deem their economies to be strong enough to take it and tasked the International Monetary Fund with studying ways to do so. They pledged to coordinate so as not to distort markets and economies as happened during the rush to save banks.

While German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck sought a “credible exit strategy” to avoid inflation, Geithner and U.K. Chancellor of the ExchequerAlistair Darling warned against hurting the global economy by acting prematurely.

Dollar Support

The dollar got some support from Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, whose central bank on June 10 sparked a drop in Treasuries after saying some of its reserves may be shifted out of U.S. bonds. Kudrin said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Lecce that he has confidence in the dollar and there are no immediate plans to switch to a new reserve currency.

While the absence of central bankers limited discussion of exchange rates, Steinbrueck said he wasn’t concerned by the euro’s value against the dollar. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he didn’t see a “weak dollar.”

The G-8 is composed of the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, U.K., Canada, Italy and Russia. Its ministers met to shape an agenda for when their leaders convene July 8-10 in L’Acquila, Italy.

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